But given that you refuse to accept my story of how I became a scpetic in the first place, why would you believe me that you changed my mind about BEST? Prior to satellite era the spatial coverage was woefully inadequate. How does BEST’s pairwise homogenization not homogenize UHI impacted and Rural stations together making a mess of both of them? But that’s another thread. Seems it might also relate to “pause” claims also. Well Opps you can hunt in temperature data all you like, willy wonka didnt hide the gold ticket there. Kudos to all for trying, but it seems to be beyond reach of the very brightest minds. BEST did not. 4. some combination. Switching from an afternoon time of observation to a morning time of observation would result in minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures around 0.6 C colder previously measured. ‘But could CRN hourly data also be used to determine how far Tavg might be off depending on latitude and season? When the hrly is higher its only by hundredths of a degree. The few odd temperature series in South America, Africa, and Asia are unreliable in other words. Maybe they had a hangover and didn’t even get to the thermometer until Tuesday and just cobbed in the data. I wonder if this is what it’s like at an astrologers’ convention? If you have technical questions or comments, I will respond to them. Some of this will probably be used if the paper we have been asked to work on continues forward. magic went for soup to nuts and ran into ITAR. the last 20% isnt worth the money to him. Is NOAA’s approach perfect? I learned that the TOBS compensation used is too simplistic and potentially adding additional error of unknown size to the temperature record. Tim Osborn of the CRU thinks adjusted local records are less biased while Steven Mosher of BEST thinks adjusted local records are useless for local trends. We would all know exactly what was happening around us on a daily basis, in an hourly format. You get an F minus We need a few to be from the show me state to balance the hair on fire progressives. To determine potential bias associated with the reporting time, three times—0800, 1600, and 2400 h—were tested. Nope jbenton2013, you are missing the point, if the “adjustment” is related to TOBS even though there is no need to adjust for TOBS, then what might be instrumentation bias, siting bias, or other impact are wrapped up into one. The historic temperature data that Mosh uses is every bit as anecdotal as my written material is supposed to be. He would not say that if he lived in Neverland. Meanwhile, the car under the carport remains dry and frost free. The “small and inconsequential changes” might not and should not make a difference if climate science were not so polarized. I looked at the daily precipitation data for several sites some years ago. So, while you may want to know then when of the peaks it doesn’t seem to be universally recorded. Translation: We don’t trust observations so we used a model to simulate the temperatures. Ask the Austrian farmers how warm it is… I’m presently under cool cloudy skies in California, when the 1980s had it hot now. Oh, that’s just so much better. The change of TOBS is on the record. I wasn’t trying to look at climate trends, I basically wanted to evaluate the suitability of using Min/Max temps to derive daily average temps. Bias introduced to contiguous U.S. monthly temperatures by synthetic TOBs adjustments. at 2500km the correlations are all low. The TOBS change would surely have been made primarily in the 1960s, with nearly all stations having changed by ?1980?. The last couple of days I posted on an 8.5 year side-by-side test conducted by German veteran meteorologist Klaus Hager, see here and here. I guess the idea is that the 2100 reading is closer to the average and deserves to be counted twice. Apparently in Climate World this interpretation is just part of their Standard Operating Procedures. I selected PWS’s that are in rural locations, but I realize that I have no information on the suitability of the siting of any of these stations. For the other sets, TOB 08:00 and TOB 16:00, all differences between All Obs and Hrly are 0.00, 0.01, 0.02 with the lone exception of TX 16:00 with 0.06. Which is more likely to give a consistent result? You are trying to spin scientific gold from the most unlikely material. More reasons not to trust government climatologists. historically Tmax and Tmin were recorded. What is the average temperature of my area? Whether they were copies or originals ( the hand written forms ). – Jonathon Moseley, American Thinker, “…flashy (apparently widely distributed)”– Michael E. Mann, Material on this website is copyright © 2006-2021, by Anthony Watts, and may not be stored or archived separately, rebroadcast, or republished without written permission. “More BS from Mosher. This is because TOBs changes tend to show up as nice step changes in neighboring station difference series. Algorithms and complex statistics has tuned this indifferent material into something unrecognisable to the original data. They all have a use. Second question. See my question to Mosh a few minutes ago. Abu Dhabi is 3.61 +/- .62. This is of major importance if one wants to use surface temperature to monitor “warming” and “cooling”; e.g. observation and hindcast should belong to the same period, in order to calibrate. It is a way for you to answer your questions for yourself. @Jim We need to also apply proper error bars to the legacy data. That was what Mosher published, in a book, in 2010. A) UHI infects the long term global average employed data from 1965 –2001 because the adjustment The uncertainty is at least comprehensible. that was true in 2009, 2010, 2015. historically the story of climategate does start in the temperature record. If you disagree with him, fight with him. In Boulder, Colo, it’s up to 1°F either way. we estimate you need between 185 and 235 stations. I value your opinion and by the way I trust you that you don’t need to sign. largely insensitive to the details of the correlation function, so it is expected that small changes in the correlation Your measurement error just isn’t that good, no matter how many million data points you have. I got a strong impression that it is not experimentally. ftp://205.167.25.101/pub/data/ushcn/papers/karl-etal1986.pdf. in one of the sensors. Faced with the fact that their suspicions about TOBS were wrong The youngest bottom water is in the north Atlantic near a major area of deep water formation and it is 300 years old. No natural variation. Denier: 0.0C/century, errata: MODEL: IPCC4 Warming High: 4.0C/century. http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/contiguous-united-states. For this reason it is far more reliable than the junk currently called “temperature measurement data ” << especially so if you add "Final" to that tag However, there is no “right” way to measure temperature at 2 m above the surface and we are stuck with historical temperature data from min/max thermometers. Time series are adjusted using this model in order to remove BIAS, The adjustments, the argument I have spent a lot of time in a field where people would be far more honest if they’d simply say, “I don’t know” rather than delude themselves and others with inaccurate/dishonest answers. That solves the divergence issue. The biggest problem with this approach to Tobs is that a precious fudge factor would be eliminated. Hubert Lamb recognised that 50 years earlier. Taking hourly reading from an automated climate monitoring station with readings to the hundredth of a degree is a far cry from a farmer hand-writing temperature records to the nearest degree a century ago. continental) scales.”. The SURFRAD locations are used only for convenience, and no SURFRAD data were used in these plots. BEST earned a lot of my respect on that one. We dont live 6km in the air define urban and rural and test this. Because only the land-based datasets show 2005 and 2010 higher than 1998 and the satellites show almost no warming over the last 18 years! because the congressional hearing will make fools of anyone who wants to stand up raise their hand and swear to NOAA wrong doing. Were it sunny for a moment, it would be much warmer. I, like many others here, thought that the issue was, or at least we were given the impression; that you were adjusting ‘a consistent record of what was recorded’. Equivalent to UHI warming of 0.7 C. That’s a minimum. Again remember the average is an artifact, you created it, you cant use it as “data”. I lived near Colorado Springs for 20 years. I haven’t seen much skeptic discussion of TOBS. NOAA adjustments? Zeke or Steven—-when you performed the analysis you reported on in your last post on Judith’s blog did you happen to save the gridded datas, and if so, could you post a link to them? the max and min are Really huge, Of course the end effect of a large adjustment to a short series is mousenuts. MODEL: IPCC4 Warming Low: 1.8C/century While some TOBs changes did occur during the period of MMTS transition, the two are distinctly different and mostly unrelated.”. That means that they record the actual min and the actual max, regardless of the time of day at which they occurred. Working with thousands of sites and then using innumerable equations and all sorts of work arounds may be inherently inferior to ensuring that a few sites are spot on and reflect a better record of historical temperatures. Curious George, If they wanted to show a century long summary, why wouldn’t they have summarized the period from 1914 – 2014? They have, however, cast a spell upon their opponents. But whence all this precision? The whole idea that the true daily average (midnight to midnight) can be somehow well-approximated via empirical adjustments based on the time of reading max-min instruments is hopelessly naive. yes it is not perfect, it has it's problems but if this is where all the energy was put, we'd already be ahead, instead it is left to a tiny few to deal with our best method for collecting data The high and low temperature of Earth can typically differ by 150 degrees F – what value is there of a single number representing the “average”? Interestingly enough, the time of observation adjustment developed by Karl et al 1986 is not strictly necessary anymore. Today it’s UHI plus ocean cycles – PDO, ENSO, AMO, etc. Personally, I think a range that large for something as simple as the temperature record is troubling. Demonstrations dont work. Kittel, 2002: Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA. Good luck preaching to the unwary amateurs. That is our alarm. with an instrument error of ‘e’ and then an adjustment made to that record using a model “Rather than correcting data, we rely on a philosophically different Here is my digging on the subject: http://climate.n0gw.net/TOBS.pdf and whether you compare it to the correct record in our system. Thus one should compare non-TOPS-corrected and TOPS-corrected with professional stations and notice the change. And the a straight average of the derivative based on actual measurements of the stations by area have the most useful information and is not infected with bias. will you join the dance? I discussed this in more detail back in 2010: http://rankexploits.com/musings/2010/a-cooling-bias-due-to-mmts/. “Satellite data is adjusted a lot more the surface data, unfortunately.”. stuff. And there is also glaringly obvious and highly dubious NCDC stuff like the Maine trend difference between 2013 Drd964x and ‘new improved’ 2014 nClimDiv. It went unrecorded. I can check this of course by varying the filter width. Might be useful. I took a look at the TOBS bias issue a while back. http://www.freshplaza.com/article/157370/Extreme-snowfall-and-frost-damage-in-Europe I took real data from Boulder and made max for any 24 hour period in a form of running max. I’ll bet for an unbiased person with bush sense there will be very few such stations since the factors external to climate are so numerous at any given site over long periods. There is no issue about validity. For TOB 00:00 we get this: I will tell you that in my 9-5 job ( not berkeley) the last thing we want to do is a hands on data cleaning job. Paul Homewood says: I may not understand “hourly data”. However, developing an improved correlation model that incorporates And one that should be friendly to the the conservatives understanding of TOBS! What it does not explain is spread of adjustments (ranging from -1 C to +2 C) and some outliers (extreme adjustment of +5 C at one station). Why don’t we just stick with it? Behold, mostly Mosh but sometimZeke seemingly taking refuge in the fact that without adjustments the post 50s trend would be one way or another and perhaps skeptics better shut up because it is not good for their side. 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